alphen
0x71711b5d656cbaa1d8a6f010a2d46215533edc7c
- Realised P&L
- $-45.65
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $17.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? · Yes | 0.812 | 0.595 | $7.33 | −$2.67 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.425 | $5.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-09-27? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.385 | $4.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.89at 0.742Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?
- +$10.03at 0.653Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02?
- +$9.51at 0.856Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05?
- +$9.23at 0.520Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09?
- +$7.91at 0.924Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 05:15 | Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.8118811841 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 05:15 | Will Norway win on 2026-09-27? | BUY | 0.3899999945 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 01:43 | Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | BUY | 0.4099999984 | $5.00 |
| 09-24 01:41 | Will Norway win on 2026-09-24? | BUY | 0.5699999886 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 17:28 | Will Manchester City WFC win on 2026-09-22? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.25 |
| 09-22 15:50 | Will Manchester City WFC win on 2026-09-22? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 17:02 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.22 |
| 09-20 16:16 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20? | SELL | 0.999 | $104.98 |
| 09-20 16:10 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.919999992 | $96.69 |
| 09-20 15:12 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $2.50 |
| 09-20 15:03 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 15:01 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | SELL | 0.999 | $104.74 |
| 09-20 13:18 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.6499999863 | $14.26 |
| 09-20 03:45 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.75 | $32.57 |
| 09-19 16:42 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.7399999734 | $5.00 |