0xvava
0x710723b1c7d0ee7fb2f0ad456f573942e0470ff8
- Realised P&L
- $413.47
- Volume
- $46.0k
- Markets traded
- 145
- Open portfolio
- $36.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded145
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.317 | 0.052 | $36.75 | −$185.35 |
| Spurs vs. Thunder · Spurs | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.40 |
| Rockets vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Auburn Tigers · North Carolina State Wolfpack | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.00 |
| 76ers vs. Cavaliers · 76ers | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.00 |
| Knicks vs. Timberwolves · Knicks | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Bucks vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.193 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.40 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$108.00 |
| Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.80 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET · Down | 0.102 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.20 |
| Jazz vs. Warriors · Jazz | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.00 |
| Will Moldova vs. Italy end in a draw? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.45 |
| Bucks vs. Timberwolves · Bucks | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Lakers vs. Jazz · Jazz | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.50 |
| Heat vs. Mavericks · Heat | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$178.08at 0.052Will the government shutdown end November 13?
- +$175.76at 0.222Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
- +$151.50at 0.100Jazz vs. Celtics
- +$129.00at 0.750Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$87.83at 0.358Pacers vs. Jazz
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-22 02:07 | Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 01-26 01:14 | Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.34 | $34.00 |
| 01-26 01:14 | Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.19 | $38.00 |
| 01-14 01:32 | Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 01-09 02:51 | Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves | SELL | 0.07 | $2.80 |
| 01-09 01:45 | Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.43 | $17.20 |
| 01-09 01:45 | Pacers vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.33 | $33.00 |
| 01-05 01:11 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $5.11 |
| 01-04 08:04 | Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? | BUY | 0.56 | $8.40 |
| 01-04 04:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | SELL | 0.45 | $22.50 |
| 01-04 04:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 01-04 03:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $3.00 |
| 01-04 03:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | SELL | 0.49 | $9.80 |
| 01-04 03:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 01-04 03:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.31 | $6.20 |