Forelli
0x70d3640974b945545d3e2eaef8540321f61cad40
- Realised P&L
- $-448.72
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $139.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.420 | $84.00 | −$28.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.055 | $55.00 | −$125.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.20 |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? · No | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.00 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$105.34 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.00 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.00 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$59.00 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$95.62at 0.503Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
- +$93.50at 0.626US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$72.70at 0.273Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-29 15:23 | Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? | BUY | 0.56 | $112.00 |
| 05-17 07:24 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $35.00 |
| 05-17 07:22 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $52.00 |
| 05-16 22:23 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.273 | $27.30 |
| 03-15 12:12 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.059 | $7.65 |
| 03-06 17:54 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $35.00 |
| 03-06 17:53 | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | BUY | 0.14 | $98.00 |
| 03-06 17:52 | US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.44 | $105.34 |
| 02-28 10:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | BUY | 0.112 | $11.20 |
| 02-27 21:20 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $180.00 |
| 02-19 23:25 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $120.00 |
| 01-14 00:40 | Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | BUY | 0.32 | $18.00 |
| 01-14 00:38 | Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? | BUY | 0.22 | $44.00 |
| 01-14 00:32 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $36.50 |