0x708c5de5f65c84616b695c5a9d6b0bed3175576e
0x708c5de5f65c84616b695c5a9d6b0bed3175576e
- Realised P&L
- $30.18
- Volume
- $617.24
- Markets traded
- 224
- Open portfolio
- $11.55
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded224
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.935 | $2.83 | +$1.83 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.475 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.925 | $1.23 | +$0.23 |
| Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.855 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.250 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.415 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.275 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? · No | 0.530 | 0.515 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? · No | 0.480 | 0.440 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 06:27 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:26 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:25 | Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:24 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:16 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:30 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:21 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:07 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:20 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:17 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7989999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:16 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:15 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 09:54 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 01:52 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $192 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:41 | Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |