0x708b272f04cedc183ecba60550543438ec8e4225
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $18.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.06at 0.300Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 4?
- +$7.94at 0.562Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 16?
- +$6.74at 0.602Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 8?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 07:03 | Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 07:00 | Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? | BUY | 0.9116133333 | $13.67 |
| 08-21 23:24 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 22? | BUY | 0.1320324933 | $20.00 |
| 08-17 01:04 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 16? | SELL | 0.999 | $18.16 |
| 08-16 03:19 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 16? | BUY | 0.5499064939 | $10.00 |
| 08-12 22:18 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 13? | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 08-10 06:06 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 08-10 02:50 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 10? | BUY | 0.5199999834 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 07:57 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 07:57 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 10? | BUY | 0.5074626707 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 14:05 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 14:04 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.1647286556 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 01:17 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 16:51 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.289999964 | $5.00 |