0x706d58176054eaf0265722de758afd17f92b1c5a
0x706d58176054eaf0265722de758afd17f92b1c5a
- Realised P&L
- $-636.89
- Volume
- $24.0k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $201.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.899 | 0.880 | $151.40 | −$3.29 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.225 | $26.50 | +$6.48 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.165 | $12.22 | +$1.11 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.033 | $9.07 | −$110.93 |
| Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes | 0.261 | 0.004 | $1.73 | −$98.27 |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.001 | $0.19 | −$99.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$320.91at 0.220Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$266.50at 0.482Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12?
- +$213.29at 0.540Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?
- +$209.87at 0.319Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$174.46at 0.650Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 22:06 | Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8991077124 | $154.69 |
| 10-26 22:05 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.996 | $310.96 |
| 08-25 23:04 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.1499999899 | $11.11 |
| 08-25 23:03 | Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.1699999942 | $20.02 |
| 07-12 12:21 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2179999988 | $110.07 |
| 07-11 08:06 | UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.4499999969 | $65.98 |
| 07-11 08:05 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.3099999992 | $232.09 |
| 07-11 08:04 | Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.6782921424 | $140.79 |
| 06-30 11:03 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2899999997 | $555.40 |
| 06-30 11:02 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $123.01 |
| 06-14 15:41 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY | 0.709999993 | $100.00 |
| 04-19 17:21 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.5291066336 | $248.75 |
| 04-12 22:31 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | SELL | 0.94 | $252.78 |
| 04-12 17:32 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? | SELL | 0.999 | $515.26 |
| 04-12 16:25 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $96.10 |