Clownfish2198
0x705a20a01944685bbbcdb41f269f675492145e2a
- Realised P&L
- $-3.88
- Volume
- $161.4k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $1.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evo Morales arrested by September 30? · No | 0.986 | 0.744 | $1.77 | −$0.57 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 27? · No | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.54at 0.909Ethereum all time high by January 31?
- +$0.51at 0.938Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?
- +$0.17at 0.880Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$0.17at 0.940Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?
- +$0.08at 0.989Will Microsoft say "Azure" during earnings call?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 08:00 | Evo Morales arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.9859999983 | $2.34 |
| 08-06 07:46 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? | BUY | 0.9799995654 | $2.21 |
| 07-28 06:07 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.39 |
| 06-05 10:52 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.985 | $2.00 |
| 06-05 10:09 | Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.977 | $2.22 |
| 05-21 07:42 | Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9769999912 | $2.22 |
| 05-11 01:56 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.988 | $2.44 |
| 04-08 02:13 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.982 | $2.43 |
| 04-08 02:12 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.985 | $2.43 |
| 03-20 13:02 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.984999998 | $2.44 |
| 03-16 09:43 | Will "War Machine" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.9959996032 | $2.43 |
| 03-16 09:42 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | SELL | 0.986 | $1.82 |
| 02-25 14:10 | Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? | SELL | 0.991 | $0.60 |
| 02-25 13:32 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | BUY | 0.9859999957 | $1.83 |
| 02-25 13:31 | Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? | SELL | 0.991 | $1.83 |