Darkpopcorn
0x70491c7530e4e92a206258230048402ec7023dea
- Realised P&L
- $282.48
- Volume
- $58.9k
- Markets traded
- 214
- Open portfolio
- $180.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded214
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.400 | $80.00 | −$98.00 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · No | 0.931 | 0.920 | $46.02 | −$0.52 |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.353 | 0.655 | $19.65 | +$9.05 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.059 | $11.90 | −$6.90 |
| Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No | 0.943 | 0.983 | $9.82 | +$0.40 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.265 | $7.95 | −$0.45 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.955 | $4.78 | +$0.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$98.26at 0.986Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
- +$82.47at 0.998100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31?
- +$75.38at 0.769Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 58 million views on day 2?
- +$69.62at 0.750Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31?
- +$66.78at 0.617Will MrBeast hit 117 billion views by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 00:22 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1? | SELL | 0.902 | $42.84 |
| 09-17 22:26 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1? | BUY | 0.789934974 | $242.96 |
| 09-17 22:21 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1? | BUY | 0.782 | $15.64 |
| 09-12 13:50 | Will MrBeast's latest video get between 83 and 84 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.97 | $130.37 |
| 09-11 15:58 | Will MrBeast's next video get 78.0 million or more views on day 6? | BUY | 0.995 | $149.25 |
| 09-11 13:07 | Will MrBeast's next video get 78.0 million or more views on day 6? | SELL | 0.574 | $37.40 |
| 09-11 12:53 | Will MrBeast's next video get 78.0 million or more views on day 6? | SELL | 0.5201838606 | $11.35 |
| 09-11 11:16 | Will MrBeast's next video get 78.0 million or more views on day 6? | BUY | 0.349 | $13.96 |
| 09-10 14:05 | Will MrBeast's latest video get between 71 and 72 million views on day 5? | BUY | 0.9829999998 | $17.00 |
| 09-10 14:04 | Will MrBeast's latest video get between 71 and 72 million views on day 5? | BUY | 0.9829999999 | $200.00 |
| 09-10 13:27 | Will MrBeast's latest video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 5? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.80 |
| 09-09 22:18 | Will MrBeast's latest video get between 70 and 71 million views on day 5? | BUY | 0.99 | $7.92 |
| 09-08 15:43 | Will MrBeast's latest video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 3? | BUY | 0.988 | $110.00 |
| 09-08 15:43 | Will MrBeast's latest video get between 59 and 60 million views on day 3? | BUY | 0.989 | $61.09 |
| 09-08 15:36 | Will MrBeast's latest video get at least 62 million views on day 3? | SELL | 0.999 | $228.33 |