coloradogaston
0x6fac2c4887a6fe30664754b5cd6a0426d33b574e
- Realised P&L
- $-942.44
- Volume
- $253.7k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $480.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.018 | $433.47 | −$66.51 |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.009 | $47.22 | −$2.77 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.114 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026? · No | 0.826 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? · Yes | 0.334 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.110US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$477.68at 0.293Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?
- +$293.75at 0.191Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
- +$287.69at 0.237Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?
- +$243.30at 0.189Someone else next Prime Minister of France?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 16:42 | Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.8259587017 | $100.00 |
| 09-01 09:39 | Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0089999998 | $50.00 |
| 09-01 09:31 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0213394872 | $500.00 |
| 03-14 13:20 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | BUY | 0.334213756 | $100.00 |
| 02-27 22:10 | No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 | SELL | 0.1005584729 | $239.75 |
| 02-27 21:55 | Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | SELL | 0.936019908 | $297.15 |
| 02-27 21:55 | Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | SELL | 0.058 | $1.78 |
| 02-27 21:54 | Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | BUY | 0.0649999712 | $2.00 |
| 02-27 21:51 | Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | BUY | 0.945 | $300.00 |
| 02-27 13:05 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999993 | $100.00 |
| 02-27 02:19 | No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 | BUY | 0.1258290483 | $300.00 |
| 02-21 14:22 | Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month? | SELL | 0.006 | $2.86 |
| 02-21 00:50 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1139999997 | $300.00 |
| 02-09 00:41 | Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month? | BUY | 0.2095411035 | $100.00 |
| 02-09 00:21 | Will "DtMF" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | BUY | 0.0380302159 | $20.00 |