0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e
0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e
- Realised P&L
- $41.8k
- Volume
- $652.3k
- Markets traded
- 1,244
- Open portfolio
- $50.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,244
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.6kat 0.272Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?
- +$1.4kat 0.849Set Handicap: Routliffe/Sutjiadi (-1.5) vs Garland/Hsieh (+1.5)
- +$1.1kat 0.681Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?
- +$994.63at 0.024Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 9.5% to 10.5%?
- +$936.09at 0.311Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:49 | Will Trump say "Alaska" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.999 | $990.72 |
| 11-01 23:47 | Will Trump say "Illinois" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.2k |
| 11-01 23:46 | Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.3k |
| 11-01 23:44 | Will Trump say "Shit" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.4k |
| 11-01 23:30 | Will NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 11-01 23:17 | Will Seoul have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October? | BUY | 0.99710268 | $498.55 |
| 11-01 19:19 | Will Miami (FL) be ranked top 25 on the Week 9 AP Poll? | BUY | 0.98875 | $197.75 |
| 11-01 19:16 | Will Kentucky be ranked top 25 on the Week 9 AP Poll? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 11-01 19:16 | Will BYU be ranked top 25 on the Week 9 AP Poll? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 11-01 19:16 | Will Iowa be ranked top 25 on the Week 9 AP Poll? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 11-01 19:16 | Will Texas be ranked top 25 on the Week 9 AP Poll? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 11-01 19:16 | Will Florida be ranked top 25 on the Week 9 AP Poll? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 11-01 19:16 | Will Missouri be ranked top 25 on the Week 9 AP Poll? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 11-01 13:59 | Will Ed Ruscha's “Cities Across the Globe” sell for at least $700k at auction? | BUY | 0.99 | $82.57 |
| 11-01 13:48 | Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1600 and $4.1699 on November 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |