0x6F6afe7d0d0f660291ae43C3D295f11eb0173a2D-1729763118262
0x6f6afe7d0d0f660291ae43c3d295f11eb0173a2d
- Realised P&L
- $-932.12
- Volume
- $326.5k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $51.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.045 | $19.57 | −$80.43 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.204 | 0.130 | $19.07 | −$10.93 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.296 | 0.125 | $12.65 | −$17.35 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? · No | 0.402 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Kurds declare independence from Iran? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$530.00 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? · No | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
| Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.337US military action against Iran before July?
- +$2.3kat 0.034US strikes Iraq by February 28?
- +$930.08at 0.388Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
- +$648.30at 0.100Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?
- +$396.66at 0.255Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-07 23:10 | Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 23:10 | Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | BUY | 0.1 | $60.00 |
| 04-07 23:07 | Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | BUY | 0.0599999986 | $40.00 |
| 04-07 21:38 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.0409999996 | $100.00 |
| 04-06 20:57 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.033 | $30.00 |
| 03-26 20:56 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.008 | $125.48 |
| 03-06 22:37 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.1043788481 | $160.00 |
| 03-06 22:37 | Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $150.00 |
| 03-06 22:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.2296680718 | $400.00 |
| 03-05 21:16 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.1269999999 | $800.00 |
| 03-04 22:31 | Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.1691878957 | $50.00 |
| 03-04 22:27 | Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.0907696357 | $50.00 |
| 03-04 22:25 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.2965403574 | $30.00 |
| 03-04 22:25 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY | 0.4016552091 | $100.00 |
| 03-04 22:24 | Kurds declare independence from Iran? | BUY | 0.3400773911 | $200.00 |