0x6F3b2C56Fabd12c413AbDf832Eb28e1174a25eA9-1769728825165
0x6f3b2c56fabd12c413abdf832eb28e1174a25ea9
- Realised P&L
- $9.0k
- Volume
- $27.9k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $53.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar32.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.011 | $53.76 | −$407.04 |
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.028 | $0.14 | −$0.21 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$109.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.5kat 0.210US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.450Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.570Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$-989.10at 0.458Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-19 01:45 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $460.80 |
| 04-18 20:44 | U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.35 |
| 03-02 16:46 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.025 | $109.94 |
| 02-18 22:43 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999999 | $1.7k |
| 01-29 23:26 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.458239308 | $989.10 |
| 01-29 23:25 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999999 | $2.0k |
| 01-29 23:23 | Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999999 | $2.0k |