0x6f0958bcfc84cf989c30eda634d580a3e96b29e4
- Realised P&L
- $0.93
- Volume
- $54.40
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $12.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.994 | $2.90 | +$1.44 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.640 | $2.45 | +$0.92 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.720 | $1.78 | +$0.25 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.760 | $1.53 | +$0.00 |
| Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.690 | 0.675 | $1.50 | −$0.03 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina? · No | 0.280 | 0.255 | $1.39 | −$0.14 |
| Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.710 | 0.520 | $1.12 | −$0.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.98at 0.610US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
- +$0.70at 0.689S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on September 8?
- +$0.64at 0.708Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of September 14 2026?
- +$0.58at 0.728Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?
- +$0.54at 0.718Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 23:56 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.2799999854 | $1.53 |
| 09-15 13:27 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 15? | BUY | 0.3099999919 | $1.53 |
| 09-15 13:27 | Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7099998608 | $1.53 |
| 09-15 05:21 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6899997835 | $1.53 |
| 09-14 21:20 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.53 |
| 09-14 13:20 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999603 | $1.53 |
| 09-14 05:17 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999542 | $1.53 |
| 09-13 21:16 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999838 | $1.53 |
| 09-12 20:53 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.3099999919 | $1.53 |
| 09-11 06:39 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999516 | $1.53 |
| 09-10 22:36 | Will Trump say "America First" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7599999603 | $1.53 |
| 09-10 14:09 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.72 | $1.53 |
| 09-10 03:03 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.6499998938 | $1.53 |
| 09-09 16:33 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7099999843 | $1.36 |
| 09-09 08:23 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.6099999322 | $1.53 |