keepsfailingupwards
0x6eb50d7b2858bb6992ef0826310832e3d7b08588
- Realised P&L
- $-5.1k
- Volume
- $962.2k
- Markets traded
- 108
- Open portfolio
- $6.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded108
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.995 | $3.9k | +$215.87 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? · Yes | 0.997 | 0.995 | $3.0k | −$7.55 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.3k |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target · Yes | 0.983 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$569.07 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.2k |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? · No | 0.877 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$420.95 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.4kat 0.395MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.620US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
- +$940.70at 0.960Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?
- +$432.00at 0.980Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?
- +$410.83at 0.936Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 02:58 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.6k |
| 08-27 03:54 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.94 | $3.7k |
| 08-25 23:09 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.4k |
| 08-25 23:07 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? | SELL | 0.999 | $13.3k |
| 08-25 12:58 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $1.9k |
| 08-25 12:57 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.1k |
| 08-22 03:20 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $3.2k |
| 08-19 00:33 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | BUY | 0.991 | $11.7k |
| 08-15 01:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.3k |
| 08-15 00:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.3k |
| 08-14 04:05 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.986 | $5.8k |
| 08-03 04:49 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.3k |
| 08-01 04:10 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.0k |
| 07-29 12:50 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.7k |
| 07-28 23:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.9k |