Phantom69
0x6e4b8009426dd540f27797ffc326188c223b3c6d
- Realised P&L
- $21.0k
- Volume
- $1.94M
- Markets traded
- 218
- Open portfolio
- $948.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded218
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.577 | 0.575 | $287.50 | −$0.93 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? · No | 0.266 | 0.288 | $229.13 | +$17.34 |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference? · No | 0.664 | 0.705 | $200.52 | +$11.78 |
| Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.057 | $153.10 | −$47.71 |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? · No | 0.098 | 0.182 | $58.36 | +$26.99 |
| Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? · No | 0.610 | 0.050 | $20.00 | −$224.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.0kat 0.211Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
- +$16.4kat 0.245US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
- +$11.7kat 0.186Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$11.3kat 0.297Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$4.4kat 0.474US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 22:27 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.2662080092 | $211.79 |
| 09-15 21:37 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5768662 | $288.43 |
| 09-15 21:36 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6634865078 | $185.39 |
| 09-15 21:23 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? | SELL | 0.9571128239 | $4.7k |
| 09-15 19:05 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.1k |
| 09-15 18:45 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | BUY | 0.0979177994 | $28.82 |
| 09-15 16:21 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0709782809 | $98.04 |
| 09-15 16:20 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $103.20 |
| 09-15 08:35 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.55 |
| 09-14 16:01 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.083 | $73.05 |
| 09-14 16:00 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $108.00 |
| 09-14 08:50 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $17.77 |
| 09-14 08:30 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.6978451533 | $3.2k |
| 09-13 16:24 | SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.5645289241 | $500.00 |
| 09-13 16:22 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.61 | $225.93 |