0x6DdEBC81c797a021f8bD9ceAA92a010A8c50a579-1762763858654
0x6ddebc81c797a021f8bd9ceaa92a010a8c50a579
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $41.4k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $637.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.72at 0.210Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
- +$20.24at 0.760Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in November?
- +$9.73at 0.208Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?
- +$6.62at 0.430Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 25?
- +$2.00at 0.840Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 02:47 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.7299999955 | $40.70 |
| 10-07 02:45 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.283 | $42.45 |
| 10-06 18:00 | Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.5721852716 | $97.63 |
| 10-06 17:58 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 6? | SELL | 0.3904685942 | $78.33 |
| 10-06 17:57 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.65 | $130.00 |
| 10-06 17:52 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 6? | BUY | 0.0239842955 | $10.00 |
| 10-06 17:51 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $785 on October 6? | BUY | 0.0095580729 | $10.00 |
| 10-06 17:48 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 6? | BUY | 0.4985044865 | $100.00 |
| 10-06 17:38 | Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0334094803 | $30.00 |
| 10-06 17:38 | Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0246302035 | $20.00 |
| 10-06 17:37 | Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $80.00 |
| 10-06 17:36 | Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0799232836 | $80.00 |
| 10-06 17:35 | Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.1548208412 | $150.00 |
| 10-06 17:20 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $30.00 |
| 05-26 10:57 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY | 0.0389824596 | $250.00 |