0x6d861942945a4b200305a1aff852f2b735a82b94
- Realised P&L
- $3.21
- Volume
- $19.52
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $5.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar16.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.994 | $1.46 | +$0.46 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.655 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.730 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.720 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.415 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.395 | $0.53 | −$0.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.65at 0.610S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 11?
- +$0.59at 0.630US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
- +$0.56at 0.640US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
- +$0.40at 0.718Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?
- +$0.38at 0.728Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 18:08 | Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on September 15? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 09:24 | Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 22:29 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:00 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 05:52 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 21:52 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 04:16 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 18:00 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 08:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 17:47 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 09:41 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $189 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 04:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 17:35 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |