0x6d742a83a3ee1cc6451bea2d7a00623c224462f9
0x6d742a83a3ee1cc6451bea2d7a00623c224462f9
- Realised P&L
- $36.89
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $106.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.01at 0.141Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?
- +$23.52at 0.099Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$19.36at 0.102Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$13.84at 0.261Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
- +$13.81at 0.215Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 12:14 | Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? | BUY | 0.2099999874 | $3.17 |
| 10-14 03:21 | Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31? | BUY | 0.1261507384 | $7.21 |
| 10-13 23:34 | Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | SELL | 0.34 | $0.53 |
| 10-12 23:01 | Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | SELL | 0.3 | $0.15 |
| 10-12 22:59 | Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | SELL | 0.3 | $0.16 |
| 10-12 22:58 | Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | SELL | 0.31 | $0.23 |
| 10-12 22:56 | Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | SELL | 0.32 | $0.37 |
| 10-12 19:02 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.92 |
| 10-12 18:19 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? | BUY | 0.1254271341 | $3.84 |
| 10-12 15:00 | Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? | BUY | 0.25 | $3.05 |
| 10-12 08:59 | Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.16 |
| 10-11 20:12 | Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | SELL | 0.36 | $0.26 |
| 10-11 20:12 | Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | SELL | 0.37 | $0.13 |
| 10-10 21:18 | Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | SELL | 0.35 | $0.34 |
| 10-09 22:36 | Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? | BUY | 0.2899999944 | $7.27 |