0x6D6C16512eb7AD7C49D8fD257ea4be9C8562F7C9-1764248573776
0x6d6c16512eb7ad7c49d8fd257ea4be9c8562f7c9
- Realised P&L
- $201.85
- Volume
- $5.3k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.683 | 0.770 | $776.62 | +$87.64 |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.461 | 0.395 | $378.92 | −$63.24 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.875 | $154.68 | +$34.47 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.281 | 0.180 | $83.48 | −$46.88 |
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.045 | $11.25 | −$8.75 |
| Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) · FC Barcelona | 0.607 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-19? · Yes | 0.446 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$231.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$383.32at 0.610MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$100.00at 0.500Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)
- +$81.82at 0.550Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)
- +$11.41at 0.773Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 12:32 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5890864996 | $145.74 |
| 08-21 07:18 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7632591185 | $294.96 |
| 08-20 14:53 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6799999993 | $120.21 |
| 08-20 14:53 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.86 | $124.47 |
| 08-19 19:28 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7199999869 | $48.28 |
| 08-19 19:27 | Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.32 | $50.00 |
| 06-15 16:15 | Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5 | $243.50 |
| 06-15 16:15 | Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.08 | $20.00 |
| 06-15 16:14 | Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4995519019 | $100.00 |
| 06-15 16:14 | Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2797456844 | $110.00 |
| 06-09 08:04 | Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2885825907 | $20.36 |
| 05-29 13:45 | Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4199999981 | $48.66 |
| 05-20 14:23 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7599999989 | $110.00 |
| 05-19 07:36 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6499999948 | $100.00 |
| 05-19 07:18 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6499999948 | $100.00 |