BadgerWarBucks
0x6d549a44921d95de359e282e7a1a6988cd993e28
- Realised P&L
- $-18.37
- Volume
- $51.5k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $16.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.019 | $16.03 | +$11.04 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET · Down | 0.583 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.82 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.81at 0.012Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
- +$14.26at 0.130Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?
- +$13.17at 0.066US forces enter Iran by March 7?
- +$13.06at 0.028Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
- +$11.54at 0.260Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-19 06:04 | Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.50 |
| 03-19 06:04 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $7.20 |
| 03-19 06:03 | NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0830352133 | $11.37 |
| 03-19 06:03 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.2440506009 | $19.29 |
| 03-19 06:03 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $19.25 |
| 03-19 06:03 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.56 | $21.54 |
| 03-19 06:03 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $27.00 |
| 03-19 05:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $1.95 |
| 03-19 05:47 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | BUY | 0.064 | $1.00 |
| 03-19 05:47 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | BUY | 0.0245129281 | $1.00 |
| 03-19 05:43 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $4.48 |
| 03-10 07:49 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 53 million views on day 4? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 03-10 07:49 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 55 million views on day 4? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 03-10 07:49 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 4? | BUY | 0.0056022409 | $1.00 |
| 03-10 07:49 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 59 million views on day 4? | BUY | 0.020879887 | $0.89 |