pattemanden
0x6d40b1d38e29d57a3338e885481cc6235a2ff09d
- Realised P&L
- $-13.70
- Volume
- $774.71
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $15.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? · Yes | 0.430 | 1.000 | $13.95 | +$7.95 |
| Trump goes to space in 2026? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.025 | $1.24 | −$0.76 |
| Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.08at 0.260Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
- +$-0.64at 0.073Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- +$-6.25at 0.160Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-16 12:37 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0219999972 | $7.47 |
| 05-16 12:37 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.071 | $8.22 |
| 05-10 13:21 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999924 | $8.10 |
| 05-10 13:18 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $8.08 |
| 04-30 20:52 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.2599999814 | $7.00 |
| 04-30 20:51 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.0366049973 | $1.00 |
| 04-30 20:47 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.1536 | $6.00 |
| 04-30 20:45 | Trump goes to space in 2026? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 04-30 20:45 | Trump goes to space in 2026? | BUY | 0.0389999635 | $1.00 |
| 04-30 20:45 | Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? | BUY | 0.4299999706 | $6.00 |
| 04-30 20:43 | Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? | BUY | 0.3699999847 | $7.00 |