0x6d3393884e4b7e58508f260e6e56202a9da982ad
- Realised P&L
- $-15.71
- Volume
- $653.00
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $47.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.925 | $22.20 | +$10.20 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.958 | $5.75 | +$0.34 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.915 | $4.58 | +$0.17 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.105 | $3.57 | −$1.87 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.315 | 0.075 | $3.08 | −$9.82 |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.133 | 0.055 | $2.97 | −$4.19 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.065 | $1.63 | −$2.88 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.075 | $1.57 | −$7.25 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.125 | 0.134 | $1.47 | +$0.10 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.065 | $0.84 | −$1.24 |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.038 | $0.19 | −$0.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.54at 0.437Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.98at 0.620Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.72at 0.850China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.24at 0.810Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
- +$0.14at 0.700Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 20:48 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 07-09 18:06 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 06-30 15:22 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 06-25 15:57 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.08 |
| 06-21 07:45 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $3.36 |
| 06-19 03:55 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.40 |
| 06-14 09:45 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.092 | $1.84 |
| 06-12 08:50 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.90 |
| 06-07 13:57 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.125 | $1.38 |
| 05-29 07:47 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.927 | $12.98 |
| 05-20 21:30 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 05-20 21:29 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.861 | $6.89 |
| 05-20 21:29 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.139 | $1.11 |
| 05-20 21:29 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.86 |
| 05-20 21:29 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.459 | $3.21 |