cryptoguy124
0x6d2f2c86b04a0cb6c37cfed4ef3a35ef133ffd67
- Realised P&L
- $-3.0k
- Volume
- $11.0k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $118.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-27.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.405 | $101.25 | −$28.75 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.110 | $17.60 | −$36.80 |
| Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? · Yes | 0.583 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$641.88 |
| Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? · Yes | 0.306 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
| Will Trump say "Soy" during "60 Minutes" on November 2? · Yes | 0.712 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Wolves vs. Manchester United end in a draw? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$196.88at 0.640LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)
- +$12.05at 0.856Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08?
- +$10.65at 0.885Discord IPO in 2025?
- +$2.00at 0.960Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?
- +$-0.05at 0.967Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 16:11 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.52 | $130.00 |
| 06-13 16:10 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $0.00 |
| 02-08 21:22 | Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | BUY | 0.3156983958 | $2.0k |
| 02-08 21:19 | Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | BUY | 0.2498343515 | $42.20 |
| 02-08 21:18 | Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | BUY | 0.2497241346 | $249.33 |
| 02-08 21:02 | Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | BUY | 0.3172869409 | $133.49 |
| 12-08 20:31 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08? | BUY | 0.8556880215 | $71.44 |
| 12-08 18:46 | Will Wolves vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | BUY | 0.23 | $46.00 |
| 12-08 18:46 | Discord IPO in 2025? | SELL | 0.9732900472 | $117.45 |
| 11-09 03:25 | LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | BUY | 0.64 | $200.00 |
| 11-08 00:56 | LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | BUY | 0.64 | $150.00 |
| 11-07 14:28 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? | BUY | 0.67 | $95.00 |
| 11-07 13:52 | Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | SELL | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 11-07 00:12 | Discord IPO in 2025? | BUY | 0.91 | $56.00 |
| 11-07 00:03 | Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $48.00 |