0x6d218eCD437068fea96293Df94C77d540506D15e-1779319745520
0x6d218ecd437068fea96293df94c77d540506d15e
- Realised P&L
- $3.1k
- Volume
- $138.2k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $547.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.285 | $285.06 | −$14.94 |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · Yes | 0.411 | 0.360 | $262.62 | −$37.38 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? · No | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.00 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.095 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.265 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? · No | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$230.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.8kat 0.273Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$742.30at 0.571Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
- +$615.00at 0.250Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
- +$507.18at 0.205Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$302.78at 0.756Israel closes its airspace by June 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 14:12 | Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0183702178 | $9.28 |
| 10-29 14:12 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.004 | $24.39 |
| 10-28 14:12 | Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.8927540575 | $297.58 |
| 10-28 02:02 | Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2999357556 | $300.00 |
| 10-28 02:00 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.4112499711 | $300.00 |
| 10-28 00:55 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.0999026 | $200.00 |
| 10-28 00:27 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.8515254364 | $4.1k |
| 10-27 22:40 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.2166899406 | $120.00 |
| 10-27 22:39 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1993502776 | $200.00 |
| 10-27 22:06 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1277853068 | $250.00 |
| 10-27 20:08 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.55 | $66.00 |
| 10-27 20:07 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.0860159771 | $50.00 |
| 10-27 20:07 | Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.2653921928 | $115.85 |
| 10-27 20:02 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.7825501217 | $255.00 |
| 10-27 20:02 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.7911253023 | $255.20 |