0x6d1Aa47b9Fa31c2064819DA2cA405FF9518f2dae-1772370610636
0x6d1aa47b9fa31c2064819da2ca405ff9518f2dae
- Realised P&L
- $6.33
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $57.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No | 0.550 | 0.405 | $16.20 | −$5.80 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No | 0.770 | 0.765 | $15.30 | −$0.10 |
| RFK Jr. Out by December 31? · No | 0.690 | 0.780 | $11.70 | +$1.35 |
| Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026? · Yes | 0.671 | 0.225 | $11.25 | −$22.32 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.170 | 0.105 | $2.10 | −$1.30 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? · No | 0.240 | 0.095 | $0.95 | −$1.45 |
| Will United States win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.70 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.75 |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$62.13at 0.483Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$6.30at 0.930Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?
- +$5.94at 0.840Trump out as President before 2027?
- +$5.22at 0.830Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$4.71at 0.952SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 10:42 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.40 |
| 09-15 10:40 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | SELL | 0.957 | $9.56 |
| 08-19 12:45 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.972 | $9.71 |
| 08-06 11:16 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.55 | $22.00 |
| 08-06 11:16 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.817 | $24.51 |
| 08-06 11:15 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.59 | $5.90 |
| 08-04 11:27 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 08-04 10:55 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | SELL | 0.71 | $8.32 |
| 08-01 01:58 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | BUY | 0.53 | $6.21 |
| 07-25 18:28 | RFK Jr. Out by December 31? | BUY | 0.69 | $10.35 |
| 07-25 18:17 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of July? | BUY | 0.87 | $5.40 |
| 07-22 15:02 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24? | BUY | 0.94 | $14.10 |
| 07-19 16:12 | President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? | SELL | 0.987706 | $14.82 |
| 07-16 13:10 | President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.94 | $14.10 |
| 07-16 12:51 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.77 | $15.40 |