CyberDegen
0x6ccb5b0534dfcfed3ae92d873a024ca9c5e42962
- Realised P&L
- $63.46
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $252.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027? · Yes | 0.751 | 0.740 | $98.57 | −$1.43 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.205 | $54.18 | +$17.18 |
| Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.485 | $50.23 | +$21.23 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.597 | $49.72 | −$11.06 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$37.35 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.74at 0.473Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times during meetings with Chancellor Merz?
- +$37.09at 0.192Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
- +$24.70at 0.669US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
- +$14.30at 0.777Will Trump say "European Union" or "EU" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?
- +$-5.99at 0.186Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 07:53 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September? | BUY | 0.7298514583 | $60.78 |
| 09-15 07:53 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $47.22 |
| 09-15 07:50 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027? | BUY | 0.7507166679 | $100.00 |
| 09-15 07:49 | Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.2799999988 | $29.00 |
| 09-15 07:47 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999999 | $50.00 |
| 09-15 07:46 | U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999996 | $37.00 |
| 06-26 11:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | SELL | 0.5472415142 | $60.14 |
| 06-25 08:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | BUY | 0.181999994 | $20.00 |
| 04-21 08:33 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY | 0.4499999974 | $32.23 |
| 04-21 08:31 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 04-21 08:30 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $44.64 |
| 03-11 14:07 | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY | 0.6693827274 | $50.00 |
| 03-03 10:50 | Will Trump say "European Union" or "EU" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? | BUY | 0.7772555005 | $49.90 |
| 03-03 10:48 | Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times during meetings with Chancellor Merz? | BUY | 0.4728451726 | $50.00 |