albuquerque
0x6cb91e653a8c5026428f36229f65de886fc34f81
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $209.4k
- Markets traded
- 196
- Open portfolio
- $33.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded196
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.048 | $33.29 | +$3.00 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.73 |
| Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.407Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.030Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$1.1kat 0.003Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?
- +$929.98at 0.690Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$833.62at 0.736Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:47 | Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October? | BUY | 0.0413117011 | $4.20 |
| 10-31 15:49 | Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October? | BUY | 0.0454726238 | $10.95 |
| 10-30 20:39 | Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October? | BUY | 0.049 | $2.94 |
| 10-30 17:52 | Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October? | BUY | 0.045598 | $4.56 |
| 09-11 17:29 | Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $91.75 |
| 09-11 13:25 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | SELL | 0.999 | $517.38 |
| 08-31 17:57 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August? | BUY | 0.025 | $2.93 |
| 08-31 11:54 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August? | BUY | 0.024 | $2.40 |
| 08-30 09:29 | Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20? | SELL | 0.11 | $1.10 |
| 08-29 17:42 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August? | BUY | 0.008986635 | $4.73 |
| 08-29 08:57 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.56 | $84.48 |
| 08-28 19:04 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | SELL | 0.64 | $12.80 |
| 08-28 19:04 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $7.20 |
| 08-28 19:03 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.78 | $1.15 |
| 08-28 19:03 | Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | SELL | 0.84 | $1.05 |