0x6cb2639895c728d7181f292a4275cd18e2375586
- Realised P&L
- $102.46
- Volume
- $412.67
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $21.27
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar24.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? · Yes | 0.822 | 0.870 | $6.35 | +$0.35 |
| Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.785 | $5.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? · Yes | 0.156 | 0.101 | $4.51 | −$2.49 |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.110 | $1.57 | −$3.43 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.075 | $1.41 | −$4.59 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.140 | $1.35 | −$3.65 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.025 | $0.64 | −$1.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$109.40at 0.062Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?
- +$12.29at 0.197Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?
- +$8.26at 0.422US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.482US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.27at 0.703Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 10:56 | Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? | SELL | 0.981 | $15.48 |
| 07-11 16:14 | Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? | BUY | 0.156097561 | $7.00 |
| 06-18 20:18 | Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? | BUY | 0.7199999654 | $5.00 |
| 06-12 17:30 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999678 | $6.00 |
| 06-12 17:29 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.59 | $12.93 |
| 06-11 18:11 | Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? | BUY | 0.821538379 | $6.00 |
| 06-06 13:58 | Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? | BUY | 0.1899999569 | $3.00 |
| 06-05 13:20 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $6.00 |
| 06-04 06:11 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7499998875 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 19:25 | Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 04:04 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.40 |
| 05-30 08:47 | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY | 0.3399999633 | $5.00 |
| 05-25 18:45 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $5.00 |
| 05-23 18:28 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 05-23 18:14 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |