PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x6cb2639895c728d7181f292a4275cd18e2375586

Realised P&L
$102.46
Volume
$412.67
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$21.27

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar24.8%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration79.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample12 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? · Yes0.8220.870$6.35+$0.35
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? · Yes0.7200.785$5.45+$0.45
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? · Yes0.1560.101$4.51$2.49
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes0.3500.110$1.57$3.43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.3200.075$1.41$4.59
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.5200.140$1.35$3.65
Ebola pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0800.025$0.64$1.36

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-07 10:56Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?SELL0.981$15.48
07-11 16:14Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?BUY0.156097561$7.00
06-18 20:18Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?BUY0.7199999654$5.00
06-12 17:30US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY0.4199999678$6.00
06-12 17:29US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL0.59$12.93
06-11 18:11Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?BUY0.821538379$6.00
06-06 13:58Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?BUY0.1899999569$3.00
06-05 13:20Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?BUY0.32$6.00
06-04 06:11US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY0.7499998875$5.00
06-01 19:25Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?BUY0.3499999615$5.00
06-01 04:04US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL0.999$10.40
05-30 08:47Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?BUY0.3399999633$5.00
05-25 18:45Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?BUY0.4$5.00
05-23 18:28US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?BUY0.549999956$5.00
05-23 18:14US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY0.4799999808$5.00