Aiden2006
0x6cb0f2bb3bfc941f9eca0d0f21c7aa6aea798fc5
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $57.4k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $109.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? · No | 0.125 | 0.962 | $96.15 | +$83.65 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.645 | $6.45 | +$2.05 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.855 | $4.28 | +$0.53 |
| US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.105 | $2.63 | −$2.13 |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.10 |
| Starmer out by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$219.80at 0.319DeepSeek R2 released before July?
- +$137.60at 0.810US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$63.93at 0.920Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
- +$60.00at 0.270Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
- +$40.00at 0.770US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 03:04 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 09-09 03:03 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $4.40 |
| 06-20 02:24 | Starmer out by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.80 |
| 06-20 02:24 | Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.00 |
| 06-20 02:23 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $5.10 |
| 06-20 02:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.53 | $7.95 |
| 05-12 05:25 | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.47 | $5.64 |
| 05-06 14:16 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.52 | $6.24 |
| 05-05 09:19 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL | 0.2 | $3.20 |
| 04-29 09:55 | Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $7.55 |
| 04-27 07:06 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $4.88 |
| 04-26 12:30 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $6.40 |
| 04-24 19:23 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $14.40 |
| 04-24 17:10 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.986 | $24.65 |
| 04-24 05:18 | DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? | BUY | 0.9829495 | $196.59 |