Aiden2006
0x6cb0f2bb3bfc941f9eca0d0f21c7aa6aea798fc5
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $58.6k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $210.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$219.80at 0.319DeepSeek R2 released before July?
- +$137.60at 0.810US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$63.93at 0.920Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
- +$60.00at 0.270Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
- +$40.00at 0.770US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 08:40 | Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 10-26 19:30 | Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.60 |
| 10-23 14:35 | Next DeepSeek Flash released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $3.70 |
| 10-20 17:03 | Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 31? | SELL | 0.0057005714 | $0.40 |
| 10-14 08:58 | Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 10-13 16:24 | Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.03 |
| 10-13 11:04 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours? | SELL | 0.0021187073 | $0.37 |
| 10-09 14:00 | Critical Discord Incident by November 30? | BUY | 0.48 | $7.20 |
| 10-05 08:16 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.50 |
| 10-05 08:11 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $5.46 |
| 10-03 10:56 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 10-03 07:03 | Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $11.52 |
| 09-29 15:55 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $4.86 |
| 09-28 08:03 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 09-09 03:04 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.75 |