0x6C6b36d8832F8BcDfE86D40418E26b9B4722bdED-1765393783617
0x6c6b36d8832f8bcdfe86d40418e26b9b4722bded
- Realised P&L
- $21.25
- Volume
- $417.10
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $13.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.085 | $6.54 | −$13.46 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.045 | $3.97 | −$11.03 |
| Discord IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.105 | $2.32 | −$17.68 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? · Yes | 0.444 | 0.045 | $0.51 | −$4.49 |
| Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.71at 0.545Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?
- +$5.19at 0.679Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?
- +$4.35at 0.734Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
- +$1.23at 0.730Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?
- +$1.22at 0.165Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-10 22:07 | Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.733884297 | $12.00 |
| 05-10 21:57 | Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $25.33 |
| 04-18 23:51 | Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? | BUY | 0.669999995 | $19.47 |
| 03-20 05:16 | US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999935 | $20.00 |
| 02-24 05:53 | U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | BUY | 0.4444444444 | $10.00 |
| 01-25 23:25 | Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? | BUY | 0.3099999836 | $10.00 |
| 01-07 21:34 | Discord IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.9099999909 | $20.00 |
| 01-06 21:54 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | SELL | 0.266 | $3.22 |
| 01-06 03:49 | Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? | BUY | 0.7299999876 | $10.00 |
| 01-06 03:46 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.1652455951 | $2.00 |
| 12-24 21:36 | Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31? | BUY | 0.5447355366 | $20.00 |
| 12-24 19:41 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999908 | $15.00 |