vinnyalug
0x6c6b2b8496dac6c0556232b55486e041a936c3da
- Realised P&L
- $-959.32
- Volume
- $12.9k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $259.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the WY-AL House seat? · Yes | 0.975 | 0.983 | $54.66 | +$0.44 |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.968 | 0.958 | $51.85 | −$0.57 |
| Will the Republican Party win the VA-08 House seat? · No | 0.974 | 0.978 | $51.67 | +$0.21 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · No | 0.950 | 0.955 | $51.24 | +$0.27 |
| Will Trump resign before 2027? · No | 0.977 | 0.975 | $49.73 | −$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$625.04at 0.480Phillies vs. Mets
- +$607.20at 0.400Orioles vs. Padres
- +$291.72at 0.740Ethereum Up or Down on May 15?
- +$243.90at 0.550Padres vs. Diamondbacks
- +$88.50at 0.410Braves vs. Reds
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-05 08:59 | Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.999 | $23.78 |
| 09-09 12:16 | Astros vs. Blue Jays | BUY | 0.41 | $412.05 |
| 09-03 13:14 | Orioles vs. Padres | BUY | 0.4 | $404.80 |
| 09-02 07:17 | Athletics vs. Cardinals | BUY | 0.49 | $579.67 |
| 08-26 07:20 | Phillies vs. Mets | BUY | 0.48 | $576.96 |
| 08-20 12:05 | Guardians vs. Diamondbacks | BUY | 0.47 | $524.05 |
| 08-05 13:30 | Padres vs. Diamondbacks | BUY | 0.55 | $298.10 |
| 07-31 08:19 | Braves vs. Reds | BUY | 0.41 | $61.50 |
| 05-15 08:49 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 15? | BUY | 0.74 | $830.28 |