0x6C646972E5929BA709A3C1f1b8De7E93a6Ce91f8-1776338513284
0x6c646972e5929ba709a3c1f1b8de7e93a6ce91f8
- Realised P&L
- $30.79
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $61.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.32at 0.619Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$17.93at 0.080Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$11.95at 0.120Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$9.00at 0.090Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
- +$4.00at 0.200Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 14:10 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4940055916 | $4.17 |
| 10-18 14:09 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1929999981 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 14:09 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.014 | $0.01 |
| 10-18 14:09 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.58 |
| 10-18 14:07 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0439999995 | $2.00 |
| 10-18 14:05 | Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.32 | $4.38 |
| 10-18 14:03 | EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31? | BUY | 0.1899999998 | $10.00 |
| 10-18 14:01 | Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $122.5B by October 31? | BUY | 0.5599999955 | $20.00 |
| 10-18 13:53 | Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $15.00 |
| 10-18 13:52 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.30 |
| 10-18 13:51 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | SELL | 0.035 | $0.75 |
| 07-19 19:17 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6074999942 | $37.22 |
| 05-07 17:59 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0959999633 | $2.20 |
| 05-07 17:58 | Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $2.27 |
| 05-04 15:24 | Will Trump visit China by May 8? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.07 |