PolyBot

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Traders

shfa

0x6c5c7a3e74a6d3cdbb98abd94cfe9229f2b51e71

Realised P&L
$2.9k
Volume
$201.7k
Markets traded
21
Open portfolio
$1.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded21
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample12 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US forces enter Iran by December 31? · Yes0.7101.000$562.96+$163.26
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.3460.045$413.83−$2.8k
US forces enter Iran by April 30? · Yes0.6101.000$327.87+$127.87
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes0.3090.029$302.10−$2.9k
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.1400.021$66.67−$387.56
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00−$500.00
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.3350.000$0.00−$1.8k
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? · Yes0.1970.000$0.00−$3.7k
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? · Yes0.0390.000$0.00−$2.4k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-31 15:58US forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.7099999996$399.70
03-31 15:58US forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY0.6099999997$200.00
03-28 17:11Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.1399999995$204.24
03-28 17:07Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.1393866981$250.00
03-28 17:03Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.3399999996$525.00
03-28 16:18Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.3399999997$520.00
03-27 19:02Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.35$942.13
03-27 19:01Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.3496839354$700.00
03-27 19:00Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?SELL0.146$313.57
03-27 18:32US forces enter Iran by December 31?SELL0.67$1.3k
03-27 18:32US forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.6886517329$843.84
03-27 18:31US forces enter Iran by April 30?SELL0.58$404.45
03-27 18:31US forces enter Iran by April 30?SELL0.58$439.39
03-27 16:10Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY0.2099999995$349.24
03-27 16:10Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?BUY0.1099999994$150.00