shfa
0x6c5c7a3e74a6d3cdbb98abd94cfe9229f2b51e71
- Realised P&L
- $2.9k
- Volume
- $201.7k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.710 | 1.000 | $562.96 | +$163.26 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.346 | 0.045 | $413.83 | −$2.8k |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? · Yes | 0.610 | 1.000 | $327.87 | +$127.87 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.309 | 0.029 | $302.10 | −$2.9k |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.021 | $66.67 | −$387.56 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.335 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? · Yes | 0.197 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.7k |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.6kat 0.191Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$3.8kat 0.086Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$1.8kat 0.360Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$857.43at 0.510Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$771.46at 0.245Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-31 15:58 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.7099999996 | $399.70 |
| 03-31 15:58 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6099999997 | $200.00 |
| 03-28 17:11 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999995 | $204.24 |
| 03-28 17:07 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1393866981 | $250.00 |
| 03-28 17:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3399999996 | $525.00 |
| 03-28 16:18 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3399999997 | $520.00 |
| 03-27 19:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.35 | $942.13 |
| 03-27 19:01 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3496839354 | $700.00 |
| 03-27 19:00 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.146 | $313.57 |
| 03-27 18:32 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.67 | $1.3k |
| 03-27 18:32 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.6886517329 | $843.84 |
| 03-27 18:31 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.58 | $404.45 |
| 03-27 18:31 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.58 | $439.39 |
| 03-27 16:10 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.2099999995 | $349.24 |
| 03-27 16:10 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.1099999994 | $150.00 |