0x6c129244e9880d676d414af3f9154966534ef5aa
0x6c129244e9880d676d414af3f9154966534ef5aa
- Realised P&L
- $-0.44
- Volume
- $37.24
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $1.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration32.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat? · Yes | 0.992 | 0.997 | $1.00 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.12at 0.932Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
- +$0.11at 0.937Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
- +$0.06at 0.932Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
- +$0.03at 0.964Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$0.02at 0.972Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 12:15 | Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat? | BUY | 0.9919995238 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 00:53 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $1.06 |
| 10-27 00:53 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $1.06 |
| 09-20 03:09 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 03:09 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 08-29 15:20 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $1.02 |
| 08-19 12:54 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.9639993715 | $1.00 |
| 08-16 23:24 | Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | SELL | 0.99 | $1.01 |
| 08-01 18:00 | Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.9719995529 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 12:40 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $1.06 |
| 06-22 15:41 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 08:39 | Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $1.01 |
| 06-14 19:53 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $0.86 |
| 06-13 12:40 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399996992 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 06:36 | Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? | BUY | 0.9719999806 | $1.00 |