0x6bfCE4d1B1573Db2E3417E0605707f9BFF290cBD-1772308130105
0x6bfce4d1b1573db2e3417e0605707f9bff290cbd
- Realised P&L
- $136.68
- Volume
- $11.7k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $935.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.355 | $767.98 | +$118.99 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in November? · Yes | 0.176 | 0.170 | $69.20 | −$2.58 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.445 | $42.33 | +$2.33 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.240 | 0.235 | $34.27 | −$0.73 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.180 | 0.145 | $21.75 | −$5.25 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.52 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$321.02at 0.161Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$52.12at 0.306Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?
- +$22.07at 0.550Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?
- +$22.01at 0.215Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?
- +$8.66at 0.670Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 22:56 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.2399999989 | $35.00 |
| 10-31 22:48 | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? | BUY | 0.4205378932 | $40.00 |
| 10-28 10:03 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.9466420028 | $387.02 |
| 10-27 19:02 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1682238353 | $12.00 |
| 10-27 19:01 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.018 | $11.74 |
| 10-27 18:49 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.16 | $54.00 |
| 10-27 18:27 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.23 | $5.75 |
| 10-27 10:22 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.023 | $15.00 |
| 10-27 10:21 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.27 | $14.85 |
| 10-26 21:31 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2999999999 | $673.00 |
| 04-29 17:18 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | BUY | 0.4299999822 | $6.52 |
| 04-28 20:58 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.0098146581 | $3.27 |
| 04-28 20:33 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? | BUY | 0.1190000025 | $6.00 |
| 04-28 18:53 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? | BUY | 0.3699999938 | $25.00 |
| 04-27 06:31 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.015 | $5.00 |