JuanSablazo
0x6be5046799f84dcddc1b65ddba3a0d8613e90fbb
- Realised P&L
- $-174.68
- Volume
- $13.9k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $14.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.280 | $9.03 | −$0.97 |
| Will Merab Dvalishvili become UFC champion in 2026? · Yes | 0.434 | 0.315 | $4.74 | −$1.79 |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? · Yes | 0.338 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.00 |
| Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.00 |
| Will another country boycott Eurovision 2026 by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for The Netherlands by Feburary 1? · Yes | 0.263 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$62.38at 0.067Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?
- +$45.72at 0.620Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%?
- +$24.76at 0.084Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$13.88at 0.716Fight to Go the Distance?
- +$9.78at 0.690Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-25 05:18 | Fight to Go the Distance? | BUY | 0.5299999686 | $4.05 |
| 01-25 04:10 | UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.339999983 | $8.00 |
| 01-25 04:09 | UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.3499999842 | $10.00 |
| 01-22 02:30 | Fight to Go the Distance? | BUY | 0.3699999887 | $20.00 |
| 01-21 00:34 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $35.36 |
| 01-19 18:45 | Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech? | BUY | 0.066999985 | $4.00 |
| 01-19 04:52 | Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for The Netherlands by Feburary 1? | BUY | 0.2634146277 | $20.00 |
| 01-04 21:02 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.27 |
| 01-04 21:01 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $8.00 |
| 01-04 21:00 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $24.00 |
| 01-04 20:58 | Epstein client list released by June 30? | BUY | 0.14 | $7.00 |
| 01-04 20:57 | Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? | BUY | 0.0899999919 | $10.00 |
| 01-04 20:57 | State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? | BUY | 0.1505882353 | $1.00 |
| 01-04 20:47 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $6.40 |
| 01-03 14:59 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.629999988 | $10.00 |