Kennethnews
0x6be4888eacec4e0b84781ee20801a040b5a4dcbb
- Realised P&L
- $-692.96
- Volume
- $40.2k
- Markets traded
- 314
- Open portfolio
- $300.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded314
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · Yes | 0.113 | 0.115 | $67.53 | +$1.43 |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.225 | $45.00 | +$5.00 |
| Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.705 | $42.30 | +$0.30 |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? · Yes | 0.343 | 0.280 | $37.56 | −$8.39 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · No | 0.480 | 0.315 | $31.50 | −$16.50 |
| Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.155 | $31.00 | −$59.00 |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.220 | $30.80 | −$11.20 |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.290 | $14.50 | −$25.50 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.50at 0.270Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026?
- +$70.50at 0.280Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?
- +$47.31at 0.400Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in July 2026?
- +$39.03at 0.228Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
- +$38.50at 0.300Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 03:00 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SELL | 0.42 | $42.00 |
| 07-31 01:15 | Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.7 | $42.00 |
| 07-29 12:20 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $42.00 |
| 07-20 14:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.61 | $42.70 |
| 07-20 14:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $11.59 |
| 07-20 14:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $30.90 |
| 07-20 14:10 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $2.30 |
| 07-20 14:09 | Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by December 31? | SELL | 0.805 | $64.40 |
| 07-19 01:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $51.79 |
| 07-10 15:34 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $38.50 |
| 07-08 15:11 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $23.04 |
| 07-08 12:51 | China ballistic missile launch by December 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $7.40 |
| 07-08 03:18 | China ballistic missile launch by December 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $3.05 |
| 07-08 03:12 | China ballistic missile launch by December 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $3.05 |
| 07-02 10:17 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $11.71 |