Kennethnews
0x6be4888eacec4e0b84781ee20801a040b5a4dcbb
- Realised P&L
- $-985.89
- Volume
- $49.6k
- Markets traded
- 406
- Open portfolio
- $73.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded406
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.115 | $73.54 | +$3.78 |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.105 | $0.27 | −$0.50 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.50at 0.270Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026?
- +$70.44at 0.280Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?
- +$47.31at 0.400Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in July 2026?
- +$39.04at 0.228Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
- +$38.50at 0.300Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 08:45 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 09-08 10:46 | Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 24°C on September 8? | SELL | 0.998 | $39.92 |
| 09-08 08:20 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on September 8? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.59 |
| 09-08 04:49 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on September 8? | SELL | 0.999 | $39.96 |
| 09-07 07:52 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 7? | SELL | 0.994 | $39.75 |
| 09-06 06:23 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on September 6? | SELL | 0.88 | $35.20 |
| 09-05 07:27 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on September 5? | SELL | 0.999 | $39.96 |
| 09-01 02:29 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.10 |
| 08-31 01:55 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | SELL | 0.02 | $2.80 |
| 08-29 09:06 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 29? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.38 |
| 08-29 08:49 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 29? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.98 |
| 08-29 08:48 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 29? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.81 |
| 08-29 08:01 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 29? | SELL | 0.0751962376 | $2.04 |
| 08-28 09:01 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 28? | SELL | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 08-27 10:19 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 27? | SELL | 0.999 | $30.74 |