0x6bdb50fe4d42c5e117cd43b11957ed8095848d13
- Realised P&L
- $3.58
- Volume
- $129.34
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $5.57
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.999 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.895 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.590 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.765 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.620 | 0.585 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.080 | $0.11 | −$0.89 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.005 | $0.03 | −$0.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Trump say "Nuclear" during remarks at NASA?
- +$2.10at 0.329Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.349Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.349Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
- +$1.68at 0.379SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 18:16 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 09:13 | Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6199997024 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 23:39 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 15:38 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 07:18 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 23:14 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 10:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 02:06 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 01:42 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 17:39 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 09:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 01:03 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 16:37 | Will John Ternus say "Hardware" during his Apple Keynote? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 08:36 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 15:26 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |