severse
0x6b8418f12e086ecb619bf231b5cbbc6cec75f056
- Realised P&L
- $-300.03
- Volume
- $14.2k
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $17.34
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? · Yes | 0.273 | 0.170 | $17.34 | −$10.52 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.581 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.53at 0.699Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- +$-269.80at 0.698Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 03:18 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $8.10 |
| 07-14 03:17 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $10.80 |
| 07-14 03:15 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | BUY | 0.28 | $8.96 |
| 04-24 06:43 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.581 | $23.24 |
| 02-02 04:07 | Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.622 | $2.2k |
| 01-30 08:18 | Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.698 | $2.5k |
| 01-30 07:31 | Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $2.5k |
| 01-30 02:15 | Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.6989914286 | $2.4k |