0x6b61edd8d7a2931c161881af06211b2f96d5bf25
- Realised P&L
- $-115.34
- Volume
- $33.5k
- Markets traded
- 165
- Open portfolio
- $117.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded165
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? · Yes | 0.506 | 0.615 | $67.41 | +$11.93 |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 17? · No | 0.520 | 1.000 | $28.08 | +$13.47 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on September 17? · No | 0.780 | 1.000 | $12.16 | +$2.67 |
| Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? · Yes | 0.404 | 0.365 | $9.34 | −$0.99 |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on September 17? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.001 | $0.08 | −$12.68 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on September 17? · Yes | 0.171 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$15.52 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on September 17? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.001 | $0.04 | −$9.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.83at 0.127Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?
- +$86.67at 0.310Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5?
- +$75.81at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?
- +$60.12at 0.208Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?
- +$51.85at 0.500Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 00:15 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on September 17? | SELL | 0.999 | $24.76 |
| 09-17 20:46 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.8963612734 | $22.22 |
| 09-17 17:08 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.7799999786 | $9.49 |
| 09-17 16:47 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on September 17? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.13 |
| 09-17 15:16 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on September 17? | SELL | 0.061 | $0.09 |
| 09-17 14:48 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.1046625767 | $1.71 |
| 09-17 14:46 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.1099999987 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 14:38 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on September 17? | SELL | 0.114 | $0.68 |
| 09-17 14:35 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.14 | $0.07 |
| 09-17 14:21 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.2701355529 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 14:21 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.2712209055 | $5.57 |
| 09-17 14:15 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.0962956916 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 13:45 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.1199757231 | $4.65 |
| 09-17 13:45 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.1056270397 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 13:29 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.0698152166 | $5.00 |