Fruitful-Beret
0x6b48a0364335dd58bc814f3f14756fd918d758fc
- Realised P&L
- $-16.36
- Volume
- $74.11
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $4.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-22.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $300M one day after launch? · No | 0.880 | 0.745 | $4.23 | −$0.77 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down on January 29? · Up | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.475 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.66at 0.713Will Ethereum reach $5000 by the end of 2021?
- +$1.38at 0.420Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$0.54at 0.650Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?
- +$0.45at 0.690MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$0.25at 0.800Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 07:58 | Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8799999859 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 07:55 | Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.183 | $0.21 |
| 02-11 07:10 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 02-11 07:08 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 02-11 07:08 | Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 01-29 10:12 | Ethereum Up or Down on January 29? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 01-29 10:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down on January 29? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 01-29 10:11 | Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 01-28 08:14 | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7199999876 | $11.60 |
| 01-27 18:50 | Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 01-27 18:50 | Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? | BUY | 0.8289999992 | $1.00 |
| 01-27 18:49 | Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 01-27 18:48 | Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8809996194 | $1.00 |
| 01-27 18:47 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 1PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 01-27 18:47 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |