lilya45
0x6b2387bc39740945306a599f07ad6489412fad2b
- Realised P&L
- $-94.80
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $628.78
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.889 | 0.850 | $612.18 | −$28.46 |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.830 | $16.60 | −$0.40 |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? · No | 0.743 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) · Ian Machado Garry | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.43at 0.097Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
- +$15.56at 0.966Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$2.64at 0.985Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?
- +$1.08at 0.026Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?
- +$0.60at 0.925Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 20:40 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $17.00 |
| 08-10 16:06 | UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 08-10 16:06 | Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.83 | $89.32 |
| 08-03 12:47 | Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.86 | $166.99 |
| 07-22 01:20 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9849999792 | $9.00 |
| 06-07 09:23 | Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? | BUY | 0.92 | $7.36 |
| 06-07 09:22 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | SELL | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 06-07 09:15 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.51 | $3.44 |
| 05-28 17:49 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 03-16 19:02 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7399998964 | $5.00 |
| 02-08 19:18 | Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8895108611 | $909.08 |
| 01-23 13:09 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.998 | $962.99 |
| 01-11 17:33 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $963.00 |
| 12-15 18:58 | Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | BUY | 0.7429999873 | $8.00 |
| 12-15 18:57 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9949999756 | $40.00 |