sooth
0x6af47bb5e04dc1de133eaa7cb371f787e9304f1e
- Realised P&L
- $29.28
- Volume
- $20.8k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $100.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.150 | $100.91 | +$98.39 |
| Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.12 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? · No | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.63 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? · No | 0.409 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$110.06at 0.910Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$88.57at 0.638Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?
- +$29.96at 0.677Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
- +$24.79at 0.220Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?
- +$5.84at 0.147Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-21 02:46 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.51 | $25.49 |
| 05-21 02:46 | Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.112 | $2.24 |
| 05-05 20:58 | Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.303 | $3.64 |
| 05-05 20:53 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.68 | $33.99 |
| 05-03 21:42 | Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.0062460962 | $1.00 |
| 11-17 19:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? | BUY | 0.6599998733 | $5.00 |
| 11-17 19:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? | BUY | 0.2899999275 | $2.00 |
| 11-17 16:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? | BUY | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 11-16 17:49 | Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | SELL | 0.6437414648 | $206.47 |
| 11-16 17:49 | Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | SELL | 0.0748478462 | $25.86 |
| 11-15 05:20 | Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 11-15 05:20 | Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? | SELL | 0.02 | $8.66 |
| 11-15 05:07 | Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | SELL | 0.155 | $109.41 |
| 11-14 04:39 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $97.08 |
| 11-13 18:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? | BUY | 0.15 | $6.00 |