0x6ab12dd64c81ec16d597940a1af733a97bd72a73
0x6ab12dd64c81ec16d597940a1af733a97bd72a73
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $152.3k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.950 | 0.981 | $1.2k | +$38.33 |
| Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? · No | 0.976 | 0.965 | $694.11 | −$8.38 |
| Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? · No | 0.940 | 0.967 | $308.51 | +$8.51 |
| Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.960 | 0.979 | $115.51 | +$2.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$493.20at 0.178Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$317.99at 0.470Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$267.10at 0.670Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$205.00at 0.675Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$102.00at 0.830Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 19:44 | Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.976 | $61.20 |
| 10-06 19:43 | Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.957 | $26.55 |
| 10-06 19:43 | Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.96 | $84.47 |
| 10-06 19:43 | Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.959 | $28.77 |
| 10-06 19:43 | Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.2k |
| 10-06 19:43 | Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9403221388 | $300.00 |
| 04-10 12:17 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 04-10 12:16 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.001 | $20.00 |
| 04-10 12:16 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 02-11 04:31 | Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.709047619 | $148.90 |
| 01-20 11:11 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.056 | $53.93 |
| 01-20 10:56 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.054 | $5.40 |
| 12-29 21:13 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.77 |
| 12-29 02:51 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $84.80 |
| 12-07 23:36 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.30 |