Toxic228
0x6aa10219bef43b9f6935af92fe896ffdf26c78c7
- Realised P&L
- $-325.03
- Volume
- $6.0k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1? · No | 0.984 | 1.000 | $1.1k | +$16.38 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.415 | $858.76 | −$155.20 |
| Will Ethereum hit $6k by September 30, 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.855 | $759.67 | +$13.33 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.915 | $679.63 | +$18.57 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.269 | 0.165 | $404.08 | −$255.09 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.442 | 0.345 | $169.40 | −$47.86 |
| Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? · No | 0.167 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.99 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 5-11? · No | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$296.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.94at 0.937Will Hyperliquid reach $108 in October?
- +$2.92at 0.970Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in October?
- +$-10.39at 0.457Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 01:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $4.56 |
| 10-31 00:27 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $1.0k |
| 10-30 18:10 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.983 | $117.95 |
| 10-30 18:02 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.984 | $196.80 |
| 10-30 18:00 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.984 | $98.40 |
| 10-30 18:00 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.984 | $98.40 |
| 10-30 17:59 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.984 | $12.13 |
| 10-30 17:50 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.985 | $19.70 |
| 10-30 17:48 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.985 | $197.00 |
| 10-30 17:41 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.983 | $200.53 |
| 10-30 17:40 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.985 | $98.50 |
| 10-29 17:01 | Will Hyperliquid reach $108 in October? | SELL | 0.914 | $13.71 |
| 10-29 16:59 | Will Hyperliquid reach $108 in October? | SELL | 0.914 | $4.57 |
| 10-29 16:53 | Will Hyperliquid reach $108 in October? | SELL | 0.915 | $109.80 |
| 10-27 13:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $318.36 |