tieguanyin
0x6a757ca9a115309e40be8c89020f9bdb2f9eb874
- Realised P&L
- $2.2k
- Volume
- $396.0k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $8.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · Yes | 0.394 | 0.360 | $7.7k | −$738.42 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.285 | $1.1k | −$168.93 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.017 | $0.79 | −$1.21 |
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$915.97at 0.846Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
- +$777.30at 0.327US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
- +$340.47at 0.460Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?
- +$280.50at 0.780Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
- +$238.38at 0.700Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 08:23 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? | BUY | 0.58 | $17.40 |
| 10-26 07:50 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $564.72 |
| 10-26 07:37 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $4.1k |
| 10-26 06:45 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $3.8k |
| 10-26 03:30 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | SELL | 0.4 | $5.5k |
| 10-23 07:25 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.67 | $10.16 |
| 10-23 06:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.375 | $212.25 |
| 10-23 04:02 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.374 | $1.7k |
| 10-22 06:57 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.328 | $1.7k |
| 10-21 07:17 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $8.5k |
| 10-21 03:45 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.49 | $5.6k |
| 10-20 06:44 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.972 | $6.80 |
| 10-19 06:55 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $2.5k |
| 10-19 06:54 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $5.9k |
| 10-19 02:19 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | SELL | 0.947 | $8.6k |