Francax
0x6a2db894ae7597bb6833a868935b29d883da5367
- Realised P&L
- $0.31
- Volume
- $547.62
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $9.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.06at 0.500Will "House Tour" get between 11 and 12 million views in the first week?
- +$0.64at 0.500Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by November 30?
- +$0.63at 0.500Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?
- +$0.61at 0.500Will "Troll 2" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)
- +$0.60at 0.500Will 1750 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 16:15 | Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 170T tokens the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 16:13 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in October? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.99 |
| 10-04 16:13 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.998999003 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 16:12 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 10-04 16:05 | Colts vs. Commanders | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 16:05 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on October 5? | SELL | 0.995 | $7.29 |
| 10-04 16:04 | Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.02 |
| 10-04 16:04 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on October 5? | BUY | 0.9984056413 | $8.40 |
| 10-04 16:03 | Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1? | SELL | 0.998 | $9.42 |
| 10-04 16:01 | Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.05 |
| 10-04 16:01 | Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.50 |
| 10-04 16:00 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 September 28-October 4? | SELL | 0.998 | $10.94 |
| 10-04 15:56 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.9989999178 | $12.00 |
| 06-24 02:46 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $4.99 |
| 06-24 02:45 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.9979998413 | $6.00 |