thelastmanstanding
0x6a2d9622faa847cc43c7018acee16dc7bf5e9710
- Realised P&L
- $-31.58
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $168.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.965 | $64.22 | +$1.00 |
| New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? · No | 0.972 | 0.961 | $56.67 | −$0.68 |
| Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No | 0.974 | 0.960 | $48.00 | −$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.82at 0.733Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$7.37at 0.873MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$3.60at 0.939Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?
- +$2.24at 0.945Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
- +$1.43at 0.939Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-28 11:55 | Will a hurricane form by May 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 04-20 11:44 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.9629999771 | $21.89 |