EffectiveDivisor
0x6a1f4e89322c5e9b110644990bdfe15f92432ab4
- Realised P&L
- $-806.99
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $172.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-15.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes | 0.723 | 0.895 | $158.94 | +$30.54 |
| Will the UK Budget include a land value tax? · No | 0.810 | 0.830 | $8.30 | +$0.20 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? · Yes | 0.294 | 0.115 | $5.75 | −$8.95 |
| Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.60 |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.76 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? · No | 0.304 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.04 |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.51at 0.610Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
- +$15.59at 0.933Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?
- +$11.62at 0.834Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
- +$10.85at 0.482Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$9.99at 0.834Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 08:15 | Will the UK Budget include a land value tax? | BUY | 0.81 | $8.10 |
| 09-18 22:32 | Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax? | BUY | 0.51 | $35.36 |
| 09-09 00:39 | Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.67 | $0.34 |
| 09-08 22:32 | Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.77 | $7.70 |
| 09-08 22:29 | Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.77 | $4.62 |
| 09-08 15:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.52 | $10.40 |
| 09-05 16:12 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.37 | $11.10 |
| 09-01 10:39 | Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.68 | $4.18 |
| 09-01 10:38 | Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.68 | $9.28 |
| 09-01 05:55 | Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.04 |
| 08-31 12:53 | Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? | BUY | 0.15 | $2.25 |
| 08-31 04:37 | Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 08-30 00:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.47 | $18.80 |
| 08-29 09:38 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | SELL | 0.38 | $11.02 |
| 08-28 06:06 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |