PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Estoico

0x6a167dc3b9c2ef083e8331e1c126220de8cfa9fd

Realised P&L
$-58.15
Volume
$3.4k
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$56.41

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1090.046$22.58$30.42
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.1110.105$21.67$1.32
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? · Yes0.0680.032$12.16$13.84
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.2740.000$0.00$1.00
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? · Yes0.3230.000$0.00$1.00
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00$1.00
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00$1.00
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00$1.00
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00$1.00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$1.00
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00$1.00
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$1.00
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the March meeting? · Yes0.0180.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 10:22Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?BUY0.119999999$10.00
09-15 07:06Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.05$1.00
09-11 07:36Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?BUY0.0599999988$2.00
09-11 07:35Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.004$1.67
09-09 14:06Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?BUY0.1$4.00
09-07 16:14Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?BUY0.0766400981$5.00
09-07 15:57Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0699999874$5.00
09-06 17:12Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.004$1.00
09-06 17:11Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.08$5.00
09-01 20:12Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.005999994$1.00
08-31 11:13Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0857142784$10.00
08-28 11:26Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0699999363$1.00
08-28 08:01Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0699999688$2.00
08-27 08:05Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1299999627$3.00
08-27 08:05Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?BUY0.1$5.00